With Election Day approaching, the fight for the House of Representatives has narrowed to a familiar map: suburban districts that have flipped back and forth over the past decade, plus a handful of newly drawn seats after mid-decade redistricting.
Campaign strategists in both parties describe a race that is unusually sensitive to turnout. Early voting numbers have been strong in metro areas, while rural counties are expected to report heavier Election Day turnout.
Historically, the party that holds the White House loses ground in midterm elections, and forecasters have leaned on that pattern all cycle. But candidate quality, local issues and late spending can blunt the national environment in individual races.
Control of the House will shape the next two years of legislation, oversight hearings and budget negotiations, which is why the final days of the campaign have been so expensive.