The Federal Reserve's rate-setting committee meets this week with less consensus than at any point this year. Futures traders have spent the past fortnight swinging between pricing a hold and pricing another quarter-point cut, and each new data release has nudged the odds in a different direction.
Inflation readings have continued to drift lower, but not in a straight line. Services prices remain sticky, and several regional Fed presidents have argued in recent speeches that the committee can afford to wait for more evidence before moving again.
On the other side of the ledger, hiring has slowed and jobless claims have edged up. Doves on the committee say that easing now would be insurance against a sharper downturn, and that real rates remain restrictive even after this year's cuts.
Whatever the outcome, the statement and the chair's press conference will be read closely for hints about December. Markets tend to react as much to the guidance as to the decision itself.